MAY 26, 1997
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No daily forecasts this week due to an early Memorial Day printing schedule.
Forecast: Super weekend ahead! Some clouds and possibility some showers later Tuesday and Wednesday. But after that, a dryer and warmer weather pattern is setting up. The showers I'm not so sure of, because of mixed messages from the computer models. I'm reasonably confident of the warm weather part of the forecast. High pressure will build into the Pacific Northwest for warm and mostly sunny weather through the weekend. Temperatures nto the 70's, maybe even the 80's. It's an outdoor weekend.
Forecasting: Weather forecasting has gotten better in the last ten years. The short-range forecasts are about 85% accurate. New high-tech radar have helped refine daily forecasts. Long-range forecasts now have an accuracy out to about 7 or 8 days. The computer models actually take the daily forecast out to about two weeks, but in reality, after a week, it's pretty much a guess. In complex weather situations, like Puget Sound snowstorms, sometimes it's a guess after a few hours, but there has even been improvement in those cases. Some computer models indicate the stability of the computer's weather forecast. Is it consistent? Is it rational? Yes, now we have models checking the models. There is still room for a human in this mix of art and science. A trained meteorologist has to make sure the models seem reasonable--not predicting a snowstorm in the middle of summer. Most important, the forecaster has to occasionally look outside!